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Predicting the Winners: Kyle's 2025 Oscar Picks

Writer: Kyle Kyle

Oscar statue outline in orange on a dark background with sun rays. The word "THE OSCARS" is prominently displayed in bold letters.

On Sunday March 2, 2025, at 6 PM Central Standard Time, the 97th Academy Awards airs on ABC. The ceremony highlights the past years’ best films and award those who worked on them. Here is a rundown on a few of the notable films and awards so you can get all caught up ahead of the ceremony! Plus, at the end we will reveal Kyle's 2025 Oscar Picks, what he thinks will win vs. what he feels should win!



 

Most Nominated Films


To start, these films are those with the most nominations at the ceremony.





Emilia Perez - 13 Nominations

Despite some controversies surrounding the film and its stars,

Emilia Perez ends up tied for the second most Academy Award Nominations of all time!

Emilia Perez is not available on DVD or Blu-ray at this time.



Wicked - 10 Nominations

Stellar turnout at the Oscars for part one of a huge blockbuster prequel to a classic.


The Brutalist - 10 Nominations

The return of a classic American epic, calling back to a begone era.



A Complete Unknown - 10 Nominations

A biopic starring one of our great young actors about one of the most interesting and important musical artists of all time!



Conclave - 8 Nominations

A pulpy drama surrounding the election of a new Pope wrapped in mystery and suspense!



Anora - 6 Nominations

An off-kilter raunchy love story from a true independent filmmaker.

Anora is not available on DVD or Blu-ray at this time.



Dune: Part Two - 5 Nominations

Despite the first Dune movie being nominated 10 times,

Part Two shows up with a disappointing 5 nominations.



The Substance - 5 Nominations

Probably the surprise of the night! A grotesque body horror film that was dropped by its original distributor and had to be sold off is nominated 5 times at the Academy Awards!



Nosferatu - 4 Nominations

Remake of the 1929 classic silent film from historically accurate filmmaker Robert Eggers.


 



 

Now onto the nominations for Best Actor in Leading Role and Best Actress in a Leading Role. The Lead Actor nominees are notable and legendary actors all multiple time nominees or huge stars. For the Lead Actress category, we mostly have first-time nominees and are guaranteed to have a first-time winner. These two categories are usually the most contested online and are always fun to watch!


Best Actor


Adrien Brody as Laszlo Toth in The Brutalist


Man in a checkered suit with a cigarette, looking upward. Bright lights surround him against a clear blue sky, creating a dramatic mood.

Brody seems to be the betting favorite for the award as he has won most of the other major award ceremonies up to this point. Brody does already have a Best Lead Actor Oscar win for Roman Polanski’s The Pianist, in which he became the youngest ever winner of the award. In The Brutalist Brody plays an architect who comes to the U.S. in the wake of WWII and struggles to adjust to his new life.



Timothee Chalamet as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown


A man in a white t-shirt sitting on a chair playing a guitar on his lap


Chalamet at only 29 years old becomes the youngest two-time Best Actor nominee since James Dean! Timothee disappears and becomes Bob Dylan for this role, even performing the songs live. If he were to win, he would become the youngest Best Actor winner, which is currently fellow Nominee Adrien Brody.





Colman Domingo as John Whitfield in Sing Sing


A person wearing a crown looks intensely forward. The background is deep blue, adding a dramatic mood. No visible text or objects.

Domingo’s second Oscar Nomination comes for his role as a wrongfully imprisoned man who finds his calling in the Rehabilitation Through the Arts (RTA) Program at Sing Sing Correctional Facility. Domingo was nominated last year for his work in Rustin, and he is becoming a force to reckon with in awards season.



Ralph Fiennes as Cardinal Lawrence in Conclave


A cardinal dressed in red attire stands solemnly with a red hat, set against burgundy curtains and a bright, soft background.

Legendary British actor Ralph Fiennes is nominated for the third time, this time for portraying the Cardinal who oversees the Conclave electing the next Pope. Fiennes has been nominated for 3 Academy Awards including this as well as Schindler’s List and The English Patient.



Sebastian Stan as Donald Trump in The Apprentice


Person with blond hair in suit and patterned tie stands in dimly lit urban setting. Background features blurred lights, creating a moody atmosphere.

The surprise nomination of the category is Sebastian Stan, best known as Bucky Barnes in the MCU, as Donald Trump. Many film fans believed Stan deserved a nomination from his other movie of 2024 titled A Different Man, but it is his work as President Donald Trump that garners his recognition. While not the first person to be nominated for portraying a President, Stan does become the first to be nominated for portraying the Sitting President. This is Stan’s first time being nominated for an Oscar!



Best Actress



Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba in Wicked


A person with green skin, wearing a black hat and dark attire, looks intently in a dimly lit setting with blurred figures in the background.

Erivo becomes a two-time Oscar Nominee between Wicked and 2019’s Harriet and is also approaching EGOT status. Erivo plays Elphaba (who later becomes the Wicked Witch of the West) in the Wizard of Oz prequel Wicked.




Karla Sofia Gascon as Emilia Perez in Emilia Perez


Woman with long hair, wearing a black embroidered blouse, holds a bag strap. Colorful, blurred background suggests a festive setting.

Despite some recent controversy surrounding Karla’s old tweets arising, Gascon is nominated for her role as Emilia Perez, a cartel leader who fakes their death, medically transitions, and starts a new life as Emilia Perez. Emilia Perez is not available on DVD or Blu-ray at this time.




Mikey Madison as Anora in Anora


A concerned young woman sitting in a car with an open car door in the background.

Mikey Madison is a breakout star for her role as Anora, a sex worker who is has an unusual marriage to a Russian oligarch who is staying in New York. Madison is possibly the betting favorite of the category as she has won many other awards for the role. Even if she isn’t the winner, she is a star in the making and a name to keep an eye out for.

Anora is not available on DVD or Blu-ray at this time.



Demi Moore as Elisabeth Sparkle in The Substance


Woman holding a glowing lightbulb with focus. Dark, checkered background and blue lighting create a mysterious atmosphere.

The surprise nomination for this category is Demi Moore for her portrayal of an aging star who uses a special enhancement drug after being fired on her 50th birthday. Horror is a genre often overlooked by the Academy, so having a performance from a body-horror film like this is a wonderful surprise. This is Moore’s first Oscar Nomination, and she is considered one of the betting favorites in the category.



Fernanda Torres as Eunice Paiva in I’m Still Here


A woman with a sad look on her face sitting in a dinner with a blurred background

Fernanda Torres was another surprising nomination for her portrayal of Eunice Paiva, a Brazilian lawyer who challenged the militant dictatorship of Brazil in the late 1900’s. Torres has been acting since the late 70’s and this is her first Academy Award nomination, making her the second Braizilian actress to be nominated for the award. The first Brazilian actress to be nominated for the award was Torres mother, Fernanda Montenegro.

I'm Still Here is not available on DVD or Blu-ray at this time.


 

Now we are heading to the Best Actor in a Supporting Role and Best Actress in a Supporting Role nomination. These performances are smaller and less expansive than the Lead category, but may be the most important part of their respective films. These performances are what make the films truly special and add unique character to films.



Best Supporting Actor



Yura Borisov as Igor in Anora


Man in a black puffer jacket sitting on a beige couch, looking thoughtful. Indoor setting with lamps in the background and a red cloth.

Yura Borisov is a first-time nominee for his performance in Anora. Igor is hired muscle, doesn’t show up for the first half of the film, but is arguably the heart of the film.

Anora is not available on DVD or Blu-ray at this time.





Kieran Culkin as Benji Kaplan in A Real Pain


A man in a maroon hoodie sitting in a chair with a blurred background

Easily the betting favorite of the category is Kieran Culkin, best known for his role as Roman Roy in the HBO Show Succession. Culkin stars as Benji, the cousin of Jesse Eisenberg who together go on a journey to see the spots of their grandmothers coming of age and the Holocaust throughout Europe. It is a performance that is all over the place on the emotion spectrum, but Culkin sticks the landing.



Edward Norton as Pete Seeger in A Complete Unknown


Two men play banjo in a cozy setting. One wears a blue shirt and tie, looking content. The blurred background shows people watching intently.

Norton receives his 4 Academy Award nominations for portraying Bob Dylan’s mentor Pete Seeger. Seeger is a famed folk musician who helps Dylan find his footing but also trying to hold him back to benefit the folk music scene.




Guy Pearce as Harrison Lee Van Buren in The Brutalist


A man in a brown coat and hat stands outdoors, looking confident. Background shows machinery and greenery under a cloudy sky.

As Harrison Van Buren in The Brutalist, Guy Pearce stars as the businessman character foil to Adrian Brody’s architect. Van Buren commissions Brody’s character to develop a community center in the honor of his mother. It is a loud and powerful performance that is reminiscent of last year’s Robert Downey Jr. Oppenheimer performance.



Jeremey Strong as Roy Cohn in The Apprentice


Courtroom scene with a man in a suit speaking passionately, gesturing with hands. Audience in background. Wood-paneled interior. Serious mood.

Undoubtedly the shocking nomination of the bunch is Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice. He portrays Roy Cohn, a harsh lawyer who mentors Donald Trump in his younger years, encouraging his ambition and willingness to succeed.




Best Supporting Actress



Monica Barbaro as Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown


Woman singing and playing guitar outdoors, standing near a microphone. She's smiling, with trees in the background and wearing a dark top.

Barbaro is a scene stealer opposite of Timothee Chalamet’s Bob Dylan. Playing a musician of this notoriety is difficult, but Barbaro really finds herself as the folk legend. This is her first nomination for an Academy Award!




Ariana Grande as Glinda in Wicked


Woman in a sparkling pink dress and crown holds a wand, smiling with hand on chest. Floral backdrop, warm lighting. Fairy-tale mood.

The pop megastar’s first Academy Award nomination is for her portrayal as Glinda. Seen as a real contender to win, this is Grande’s first acting role in years despite starting her career as an actress.



Felicity Jones as Erzsebet Toth in The Brutalist


Woman in patterned dress and sunglasses sits on a sofa outdoors, smiling. Blurred man in the foreground. Green foliage in the background.

Felicity Jones acts as an anchor in a film that could easily have gone off the rails. Acting as the foundation for Brody’s Toth opposite of Pearce’s Van Buren, Jones doesn’t appear until the very end of the first half. Instantly makes her appearance felt and becomes a focal point of the film.



Isabella Rossellini as Sister Agnes in Conclave


A nun stands solemnly in focus, wearing a crucifix. Behind her, clergy in red robes are blurred. The mood is serious and contemplative.

Despite a career full of great performances and critical acclaim, this is Rossellini’s first Academy Award nomination. It is a small role, only in a few scenes, but her impact on the film is felt even before she shows up. Isabella Rossellini is seen as a good contender for this award, which would reward a career of great work as well as her great performance in this film.



Zoe Saldana as Rita Mora Castro in Emilia Perez


A woman walking in colorful surroundings with a blurred background

The betting favorite for the category is Zoe Saldana for Emilia Perez. Although Saldana is the second highest grossing actress of all time, this is her first time being nominated for the Award and it comes for the role of a lawyer in the musical crime film. Saldana has won most of the awards this season, leading to her being the betting favorite.

Emilia Perez is not available on DVD or Blu-ray at this time.


 

Moving on we have the nominations for Best Director. This category awards the filmmakers who did an outstanding job in directing their film. Multiple first-time nominees and

surprise nominations make this category one of the most interesting of the night.

 


Best Director


Sean Baker for Anora


Two people, one in a gray hat and white shirt, the other in a blue sweater, gesture with hands. Background is dark with patterned details.

Likely the favorite to win the award, Baker is one of the last true independent filmmakers left working. He is known for films surrounding marginalized people, starring untrained actors, and using unconventional techniques, like filming on an iPhone, for his films. 

Anora is not available on DVD or Blu-ray at this time.



Brady Corbet for The Brutalist


Four people in winter jackets gather around filming equipment outdoors. One smiles, others focus, creating a collaborative and focused mood.

Another favorite in the category is Brady Corbet, who calls back to filmmakers of the past. After starting his career as a child actor, Corbet gave that up in order to pursue writing and directing. His films have been set from the 1940’s up to the 2010’s and he is a very stylish filmmaker. For The Brutalist his style is front and center as a classic Hollywood Epic, larger than life and important.



James Mangold for A Complete Unknown


Two men in a recording studio; one gestures with his hands, the other holds a guitar near a microphone. Warm, muted colors.

Mangold is probably best known for his work as the director of Walk the Line, the Johnny Cash biopic or his Wolverine movies such as Logan. Here he is nominated for another biopic, that of the master musician Bob Dylan. Working to capture the essence and appearance of the 60’s, Mangold’s direction is pristine and works great for the film.




Jacques Audiard for Emilia Perez


Man in striped shirt and cap operates camera equipment outdoors; focused expression with headphones around neck. Green backdrop.

Audiard is a French filmmaker who has received acclaim throughout his career in film festivals and award shows alike. Emilia Perez was written and directed by Audiard and is based off of his own opera of the same name. Audiard is known for blending genres, this time directing a musical crime thriller. His direction in Emilia Perez earned him acclaim from the moment it premiered for his sharp and free direction.

Emilia Perez is not available on DVD or Blu-ray at this time.



Coralie Fargeat for The Substance


Two women converse in a room with a "PUMP IT UP" poster and a TV showing a colorful image. Casual atmosphere, urban setting.

The surprise nomination of the category is Coralie Fargeat for her grotesque body-horror film The Substance. Fargeat’s style is an amalgamation of her influences and that is on full display here, referencing the films of Stanely Kubrick and David Lynch amongst others. Despite the unsubtle merging of her influences, The Substance is very much its own thing, and it is directed as such.

 

 

Finally, we are on to the biggest award of the night, awarding the best film of the year.

This is the award that caps the night off with the highest honor. There are ten films nominated, but which one will win? Here are the pros and cons

that the Academy may see for each of the nominees.



Best Picture



Anora


Woman in a dark setting poses with a confident expression. Text: "Mikey Madison is Anora," by Sean Baker. Red cursive title, moody vibe.

Currently standing as the betting favorite is Anora. A film attempting to sympathize with marginalized people by a legendary independent filmmaker is the exact type of thing the Academy would award, but Anora is a hard R-Rated adult drama. It is similar in ideas to the former Best Picture winner Midnight Cowboy which is known as the most transgressive winner of the award. Even still, Anora has taken home the prize at many of the award shows to this point and remains the likely winner.

Anora is not available on DVD or Blu-ray at this time.





The Brutalist


Man in a suit with a cigarette, against a backdrop of cranes and city skyline. Sparks fly around. Text: "The Brutalist," awards mentioned.

Maybe the next favorite to win the award is The Brutalist. A film unlike many others in the modern era, The Brutalist is a huge, decade-spanning epic that was shot on VIstaVision! It was the first American film since 1963 filmed in VistaVision, reviving the format that classics such as White Christmas were shot on. One major hurdle the film has in order to win Best Picture is its runtime. It is a long movie, coming in at 215 minutes, but it has a built in 15-minute intermission and is split into 2 distinct acts. The Brutalist is an American film epic and will likely stand the test of time for its technical brilliance.




A Complete Unknown


Musician with curly hair plays electric guitar, wearing a harmonica holder and leather jacket. Text: A Complete Unknown, releases Dec 25.


Historically, music biopics have done very well at the Oscar’s and A Complete Unknown is in line with those that have been awarded in the past. One factor here is that there may be voter fatigue from all the musical biopics of the past few years, but A Complete Unknown can align prove Dylan’s relevancy and rejuvenate the genre with a Best Picture win.






Conclave


A cardinal in black and red attire stands with two others against a sky backdrop. "CONCLAVE" text dominates; serious mood.


A prestige drama with relevant thematic elements that overperformed at the box office and on streaming and is directed by an academy darling. Conclave has a very real shot at winning Best Picture, but its biggest hurdle is the fact that it hasn’t won Best Picture at any other Award show to this point and doesn’t seem primed to take home many other awards.





Dune: Part Two


Several characters in an orange-hued desert setting, with a large sandworm. Text: "Dune Part Two," "In cinemas March 1." Intense mood.

Dune: Part 2 is a massive scale blockbuster with a cast full of young and aging stars, directed by one of the best working filmmakers. What it has going for it is its technical marvels and box office success leading it onto many “best of the year” lists. On the other hand, the Academy overlooked it in many of the key nomination categories and it seems unlikely that it could win Best Picture.





Emilia Perez


Profile of a person in a red suit against a black background. Text: "Emilia Pérez", "Zoe Saldaña", "In theaters November 13". Mood is dramatic.



The most nominated film of the night, gaining nominations in all varieties of categories, means that the Academy does appreciate the film. The controversies surrounding the film that came out when voting was in session may harm the films chances of winning the award but never say never.

Emilia Perez is not available on DVD or Blu-ray at this time.






I’m Still Here


A woman with a serious expression is overlaid with large text "I'M STILL HERE," directed by Walter Salles. Green-toned background.


Arguably the most surprising nomination of the bunch is I’m Still Here, a political drama surrounding a family under a fascist regime. It is widely regarded as one of the year’s best foreign language films but seems to be an outside chance for this award.

I'm Still Here is not available on DVD or Blu-ray at this time.





Nickel Boys


Two young men in blue shirts look upward in a dim room. Text: "A New American Masterpiece," and "Nickel Boys" appear above and below.


Paraded by some as the best American film of the year or “The Great American Novel in film form”, Nickel Boys fans online are in outrage online over the lack of nominations. Across the board, the film is beloved by critics and audience alike and has a new take on what films can be, as it is shot in first person. The con for the film is the lack of nominations. The Academy seemed to overlook the film in many categories, and it seems unlikely that it could win an award like this without other wins as well.

Nickel Boys is not available on DVD or Blu-ray at this time.



The Substance


Close-up of a woman's face with bold red lips and gold hoop earring. Text overlay reads "THE SUBSTANCE." Serious mood.


In the history of the Academy Awards only 2 horror films have won Best Picture, The Exorcist and The Silence of the Lambs. The Substance would be a historical winner, but the Academy usually stays away from horror films, especially those that are as graphic as this one.






Wicked


Two women in dramatic outfits—one in black with green skin, one in pink with a crown—stand in a colorful, fantasy landscape. Text: Wicked.



A hugely successful blockbuster based on a hugely successful play that serves as a prequel to a classic film. Wicked is seen as an outsider to win the award, but the film’s popularity and acclaim may be enough to win it.

 





 

Final Thoughts - Kyle's 2025 Oscar Picks


As we wrap up, I would like to say that these are not my personal opinions on each of these films, rather my predictions and explanations for how the awards will go. Below I have two Oscar ballots that I have filled out. On the left are my predictions for what will win what award, on the right are what I would vote for if I had the ability.


Oscar ballot listing 2025 with Kyle's Predictions: Actor - Adrien Brody; Supporting Actor - Kieran Culkin;  Actress - Mikey Madison; Supporting Actress - Ariana Grande; Animated Feature Film - Flow; Animated Short Film - Magic Candies; Cinematography - The Brutalist; Best Picture - Anora; Costume Design - Wicked; Directing - Sean Baker; Documentary Feature Film - No Other Land; Documentary Short Film - I Am Ready Warden; Film Editing - The Brutalist; International Feature Film - I'm Still Here; Makeup and Hairstyling - Nosferatu; Music (Score) - The Brutalist; Music (Song) - El Mal - Emilia Perez; Production Design - Nosferatu;  Live Action Short - Anuja; Sound - A Complete Unknown; Visual Effects - Dune: Part Two; Writing (Adapted) - A Complete Unknown; Writing (Original) - Anora
Kyle's Predictions - Who Will Win

Oscar ballot listing 2025 with Kyle's Personal Ballot: Actor - Timothee Chalamet; Supporting Actor - Guy Pearce;  Actress - Demi Moore; Supporting Actress - Monica Barbaro; Animated Feature Film - Flow; Animated Short Film - In the Shadow of the Cypress; Cinematography - Dune: Part Two; Best Picture - The Brutalist; Costume Design - Nosferatu; Directing - Brady Corbet; Documentary Feature Film - No Other Land; Documentary Short Film - The only Girl in the Orchestra ; Film Editing - The Brutalist; International Feature Film - Flow; Makeup and Hairstyling - A Different Man; Music (Score) - The Brutalist; Music (Song) - Never To Late - Elton John; Production Design - Dune: Part Two;  Live Action Short - I'm Not a Robot; Sound - Dune: Part Two; Visual Effects - Dune: Part Two; Writing (Adapted) - A Complete Unknown; Writing (Original) - Anora
Kyle's Personal Ballot - What He Feels Should Win!

It is important to bring up the fact that the Academy Awards only nominate a couple of films per category and will miss some of the year’s best works. While this is one of the most important award shows, there are many wonderful films that the voting body did not nominate for anything. Academy Awards are a fun celebration and recognition of some of the most popular films, but are not an end-all-be-all when it comes to the quality of a film.




Until Next Time Library Friends!



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