2026 Oscar Predictions by Kyle

Kyle
15 hours ago
12 min read

Gold award statues in rows on a red surface, reflecting light, with a dark blurred background. Bright, shiny appearance conveys prestige.

Kyle has come back with his predictions for the 2026 Oscars, revealing his picks for who he believes will win and those he personally hopes will take home a statue. The 98th Academy Awards will be broadcast on ABC on Sunday, March 15th.

2026 Oscar Predictions

On Sunday March 15, 2026, at 6 PM Central Standard Time, the 98^th Academy Awards airs on ABC. The ceremony highlights best films of 2025 and awards those who worked on them. Here is a rundown on a few of the notable films and awards so you can get caught up ahead of the ceremony! To start, these films are those with the most nominations at the ceremony.

Most Nominated Films

Movie poster for "Sinners" featuring four serious-looking people against a vibrant orange sun. Text includes "Michael B. Jordan" and "April 18."

Sinners - 16 Nominations

Ryan Coogler and Michael B. Jordan’s horror movie has broken the record for most Oscar Nominations with 16! The record was previously held by All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land with 14 nominations each.

Man with rifle in checkered shirt stands outdoors. Text: One Battle After Another. Credits and release date: September 26. Tense mood.

One Battle After Another - 13 Nominations

Legendary American director Paul Thomas Anderson yet again adapts the “unadaptable” author Thomas Pynchon, this time the novel Vineland. Expected, along with Sinners, to be one of the biggest winners of the night!

Man in glasses and tank top stares intently, text reads "Marty Supreme." Film poster includes six smaller faces, mood is dramatic.

Marty Supreme - 9 Nominations

High adrenaline sports thriller starring the rising star of the day, Timothee Chalamet, directed by one half of the duo who brought us Uncut Gems.

Two people lie closely on a white bed, conveying intimacy. Text includes names and "AFFEKSJONSVERDI." Calm, soothing atmosphere.

Sentimental Value - 9 Nominations

The newest film by Norwegian filmmaker Joachim Trier received 4 acting nominations!

Victorian-era figures in elaborate outfits stand solemnly against a dark, gothic backdrop. Text: "Frankenstein," "Now Playing," "Netflix," "November 7."

Frankenstein - 9 Nominations

Guillermo Del Toro’s adaptation of the Mary Shelly classic novel is well nominated in the technical categories.

A woman and man sit closely in a lush, floral setting. Text reads "Hamnet." The mood is intimate and somber. Green and red tones dominate.

Hamnet - 8 Nominations

Not Hamlet, but still a Shakespearean drama sure to pull on your heart strings.

Artistic poster of a person looking upward, face partially covered in colorful liquids. Text: "BUGONIA" and actors' names below.

Bugonia - 4 Nominations

Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone team up for their 4^th feature together; this time an adaptation of the Korean film Save The Green Planet!

Racing-themed movie poster with a Formula 1 car, drivers, and the title "F1 The Movie" in bold. Actors' faces appear in dynamic angles.

F1 - 4 Nominations

The Brad Pitt Blockbuster brings in a few nominations including Best Picture!

Man in white shirt uses a red payphone under a yellow hood. Background features black-and-white posters. Text: "The Secret Agent" and "NEON".

The Secret Agent - 4 Nominations

The Cannes Film Festival most awarded film from last year comes in with 4 nominations including Best Actor for Wagner Moura.

Man in a hat with an axe over shoulder walks under trees. Text: "Train Dreams," "Netflix," release dates in November. Mood is contemplative.

Train Dreams - 4 Nominations

Netflix adaptation of the Denis Johnson novella of the same name has become a popular streaming release!

Now onto the nominations for Best Actor in Leading Role and Best Actress in a Leading Role. The Lead Actor nominees are a mix of rising stars and some familiar faces. The award season to this point has been one with no clear front runner at this point. Alternatively, the Lead Actress category, this whole awards season has been dominated by one performance.

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet as Marty Mauser

Marty Supreme

Chalamet brought home the Critic’s Choice and Golden Globe and was the favorite to win the award for most of the season, but with no win at the BAFTA’s nor the Screen Actors Guild Awards, this race has opened up. Many still consider him to be the favorite for his performance as a table tennis player who can’t help but get himself into wild situations.

A group of five people in formal attire stand in a dimly lit room, looking serious. The background is dark, creating a tense atmosphere. Michael B. Jordan as Smoke and Stack standing in the front

Michael B. Jordan as Smoke and Stack

Sinners

Jordan was the winner of the Screen Actors Guild award, one of the major precursory awards to the Oscars. After that win, he has become the favorite to win the award for many. His dual performance as brothers opening a Juke Joint in the Delta is widely considered the finest performance of his career, and the Academy may agree and award him with the Best Actor Oscar.

Man in plaid coat stands on deserted road, holding a shotgun and phone. Car nearby. Desert landscape, yellow lines on road.

Leonardo DiCaprio as Bob Ferguson

One Battle After Another

DiCaprio has shockingly been shut out this award season despite many thinking that Bob Ferguson is one of his best performances to date. Ever since his Oscar winning performance in The Revenant, DiCaprio has been passed over at the award shows much like he was before his long-overdue win.

Smiling man with a beard in a white shirt, outdoor setting with blurred background, soft lighting conveying a warm and pleasant mood.

Wagner Moura as Armando Solimões/Marcelo Alves & Fernando Solimões

The Secret Agent

Moura also brought home a Golden Globe this season and he may be considered a surprise candidate to win the award. Not only is this his first time being nominated for the award, but it also marks the first time a Brazilian actor has been nominated for Best Actor.

Man in a suit sits at a dimly lit bar, looking up. A bottle labeled "Old Frontier" and a vase of red flowers are on the table.

Ethan Hawke as Lorenz Hart

Blue Moon

Hawke’s wonderful performance as songwriter Lorenz Hart has been overlooked this award season. While he has been nominated for most all of the major awards, he has yet to win one. This is Hawke’s third Oscar nomination, yet still winless.

Best Actress

A woman in a red dress stands among a crowd, hands clasped in front of her face, looking distressed. The background is blurred.

Jessie Buckley as Agnes Shakespeare

Hamnet

Buckley is the runaway favorite in this category, sweeping the awards season to this point for her portrayal of Agnes Shakespeare. In a film about love and loss, Buckley delivers a heartbreaking performance as a grieving mother. Having already won the Golden Globe, Critic’s Choice, BAFTA, and Screen Actors Guild Awards she is essentially a shoo-in winner for the Oscar.

Woman in gray hoodie and green pants holds wine bottle and cellphone, standing outdoors at night. She appears pensive, with dim lighting.

Rose Byrne as Linda

If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

This is the first time nomination for Rose Byrne playing a therapist who is in the midst of troubled times in her own life. She has won a Golden Globe for this performance, as comedy and drama are split into separate categories for the Globes. If anyone were to upset Jessie Buckley and take home the prize, it would seemingly be Rose Byrne.

A woman sings into a microphone on stage with a sparkling blue curtain backdrop. She wears earrings and shows a joyful expression.

Kate Hudson as Claire Sardina

Song Sung Blue

The surprise nomination for the category is Kate Hudson for her work as a hairdresser in a Neil Diamond cover band. This marks Hudson’s second time being nominated for Oscar.

A woman with a thoughtful expression sits in a dimly lit room. She's wearing a dark sweater against a red leather seat, hinting at a somber mood.

Renate Reinsve as Nora Borg

Sentimental Value

This is the first nomination for the Norwegian actress. Here she plays a woman who, after reuniting with her estranged father, is dealing with her familial trauma.

Woman smiling confidently in a business suit, with long brown hair, against a blurred modern glass building background.

Emma Stone as Michelle Fuller

Bugonia

This is Stone’s 5^th nomination for acting and her third of which is from a film with director Yorgos Lanthimos. Playing a CEO who is kidnapped and accused of being an alien, Stone goes through a wild transformation in the film, including shaving her head!

Now we are heading to the Best Actor in a Supporting Role and Best Actress in a Supporting Role nomination. These performances are smaller and less expansive than the Lead category but may be the most important part of their respective films. Both of these categories are quite unpredictable from what we have seen so far this awards season, with no runaways so far.

Best Supporting Actor

Man stands with hands behind head in a dim room with a circular window. Wears a dark shirt and jacket. Sunlight highlights the sandy floor.

Benecio Del Toro as Sensei Sergio

One Battle After Another

Del Toro has won this award before, back in 2001, and some see him as a possible winner again for his portrayal of Sensei Sergio. The fan-favorite character of one of the night’s most nominated films, the funny, helpful character that helps Leonardo DiCaprio’s Bob through the entire film. So far this awards season, Benicio has not brought home any of the major awards.

Creepy figure with pale, cracked skin and long hair, wearing fur in a dark setting. The mood is eerie and intense.

Jacob Elordi as The Creature

Frankenstein

First time Oscar Nomination for the rising star Jacob Elordi and his portrayal of Frankenstein’s Monster. Despite not being the initially cast actor, Elordi stepped into the role and has become the most celebrated part of the film. Elordi won the Critic’s Choice Award for this performance and has a chance to bring home the Oscar for the Netflix adaptation.

A smiling man in a dimly lit room, wearing a dark vest. Warm light casts shadows on his face, creating an intense, mysterious mood.

Delroy Lindo as Delta Slim

Sinners

The surprise of the category is Delroy Lindo who, at 73, finally received his first nomination after multiple decades in the film industry. Despite not being nominated for any of the precursor awards, Delroy has finally earned the nomination that audiences clamored for him to receive years ago.

A man in camo uniform with "POLICE" vest stands seriously outdoors. Background has a teal and black building; another person is blurred.

Sean Penn as Col. Steven J. Lockjaw

One Battle After Another

Likely the favorite of the category, two-time Oscar winner Sean Penn is primed to become the 7^th actor to have 3 wins. Here he plays the intimidating Col. Lockjaw, who is tracking down past revolutionaries and their families. Winning the BAFTA Award and the Screen Actors Guild award for this performance, he will likely join that exclusive club.

Smiling man with short, gray hair in a black shirt. Bright window in the blurred background, creating a cheerful, serene mood.

Stellan Skarsgard as Gustav Borg

Sentimental Value

After 50 years of acting in American and European films, legendary actor Stellan Skarsgard has finally received his first Oscar Nomination. In this film he plays a film director, who is trying to cast his daughter in a film tied to their relationship. After winning the Golden Globe for his performance, he has a fair chance to take home the Oscar.

Best Supporting Actress

Blonde woman with a neutral expression in a dimly lit room, looking at a man out of focus on the left. She's wearing a sparkly top.

Elle Fanning as Rachel Kemp

Sentimental Value

Former child actress Elle Fanning receives her first Oscar Nomination, playing an American actress going to Europe to branch out into a new world of film. She has not won any major awards this season so far, giving her a pretty low chance at winning this one.

Woman in blue shirt looks surprised indoors, with natural light through a window. Simple wooden cabinet in the background.

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas as Agnes Borg Pettersen

Sentimental Value

Another nomination from Sentimental Value, Lilleaas plays the sister of Best Actress Nominee Renate Reinsve in the family drama. This is the first Oscar Nomination for Inga, who seems to be a longshot to win the award.

A person in a blue shirt looks attentively in a sunlit room with white curtains and a wooden cabinet. The mood is calm and focused.

Amy Madigan as Aunt Gladys

Weapons

For her portrayal of the terrifying Aunt Gladys in the horror film Weapons, Amy Madigan received her second Oscar Nomination, coming 40 years after her first. Arguably the favorite to win the category, Madigan has taken home the Critic’s Choice award and the Screen Actors Guild Award so far this season. Will this long-time actress finally win the coveted award?

Woman in a plaid dress lights a candle in a dim room, wearing turquoise beads. Background shows a window with blurred foliage. Mood is solemn.

Wunmi Mosaku as Annie

Sinners

Another first-time nominee, Wunmi Mosaku, is nominated for her performance as Annie, a hoodoo healer in Sinners. It can be argued that her performance is the soul of the most nominated film, grounding the film in real human emotion. Mosaku won the BAFTA for her performance and is seen by some online as the likely winner, but this category is not that easy to predict this year.

A person in a hoodie runs from a smoking car accident on a city street, with an intense expression. Background includes damaged vehicles.

Teyana Taylor as Perfidia Beverly Hills

One Battle After Another

Teyana Taylor started this awards season as the probable favorite to win and, despite being the only supporting actress to be nominated at all of the major awards, has only brought home the Golden Globe. She may still be considered the favorite for her performance in One Battle After Another as the complex revolutionary, Perfidia, but the category is open to a few potential winners.

Moving on we have the nominations for Best Director. This category awards the filmmakers who did an outstanding job in directing their film. A mix of familiar faces and some fresh names in this category.

Best Director

Chloe Zhao

Hamnet

Zhao has won this award before, for Nomadland, but it doesn’t seem likely for her to win it again. Her work on Hamnet adds an element of surrealism to a film about love and loss.

Josh Safdie

Marty Supreme

Many people called for Josh and his brother Benny to be nominated for their work on Uncut Gems a few years ago, but this is the first time the Safdie brother has received a nomination. Here his direction is able to build anxiety over top of a competitive table tennis background that makes Marty Supreme unlike other sports films.

Paul Thomas Anderson

One Battle After Another

Likely the favorite to win the category, Paul Thomas Anderson is a legend of American film, and he finally tries his hand at an action film. Over his 30-year career, Paul has been nominated for Best Director 4 times including this film. While not a guarantee, this could be the year Paul finally wins the Oscar.

Two people lying on a bed, one holding the other closely. Text shows names and "AFFEKSJONSVERDI". Mood appears calm and intimate.

Joachim Trier

Sentimental Value

This is Trier’s first time being nominated for Best Director, but he has been making films in Europe for 20 years now. A celebrated European filmmaker gets a nomination for his film about the family of celebrated European filmmaker!

Ryan Coogler

Sinners

Another favorite in the category, Ryan Coogler, has been nominated for the first time. His direction blends horror, drama, and musical styles together in a fascinating way. Sinners is certainly the fan favorite film of the night and Coogler winning would be an exceedingly popular and deserving choice. I think that it is between Ryan Coogler and Paul Thomas Anderson for this award.

Finally, we are on to the biggest award of the night, awarding the best film of the year. This is the award that caps the night off with the highest honor. There are ten films nominated, but which one will win? Here are the pros and cons that the Academy may see for each of the nominees.

Best Picture

Bugonia

A CEO of a pharmaceutical company is kidnapped and held hostage by two brothers who think she is an alien. Greek filmmaker Yorgos Lanthimos and his longtime collaborator Emma Stone reunite for this bizarre black comedy. While their past collaborations have done well at the Oscars, this seems to be a longshot to win Best Picture.

A race car driver stands confidently in front of a sleek car, with text: "The Movie," "June 27," "Filmed for IMAX," set in a foggy backdrop.

F1

The Blockbuster choice of the pack is about an aging out driver, played by movie star Brad Pitt, who is hired by his friend to rejuvenate his losing F1 team. Pretty low chances to take home the prize but will likely win a Best Sound Oscar.

Frankenstein

Adapted from the Mary Shelly literary classic, legendary fantasy filmmaker Guillermo Del Toro has his own take on Dr. Frankenstein and his monster. Del Toro has won best picture before when his film The Shape, another tale about a creature, of Water took home the prize in 2018.

Hamnet

A surreal film about the family life of William and Agnes Shakespeare and the death of their son, Hamnet. Might not have the best chance of the night, but director Chloe Zhao has directed a Best Picture winning film in the past, Nomadland.

Marty Supreme

An intense, stressful film about the urge and attempts to be great at what you love, in this case table tennis. The highest grossing film ever released by A24, a studio to win Best Picture a few times in the past. With Timothee Chalamet going above and beyond to promote this film, it turned out to be quite a considerable success, but I would not expect it to win Best Picture.

One Battle After Another

Inspired by the novel Vineland by postmodern author Thomas Pynchon, this film is about a former revolutionary living off the grid who must save his daughter from the enemies of his past. I think the race will come down to either this or Sinners. They are likely to be the biggest winners, and they were the most nominated films. Though it could be either of them, I lean towards One Battle After Another being the winner because it is a successful and critically acclaimed film directed by a legend who has not yet received the Oscar recognition many think he and his films deserve. It would not be surprising if this one takes home the night’s biggest prize and finally gave Paul Thomas Anderson his Best Picture win.

The Secret Agent

A thriller in which a teacher moves to a new town to escape his violent past, but things don’t go this smoothly. Though commonly regarded as one of the year’s best foreign films, it seems to have an outside chance to take home the biggest award of the night.

A woman and child cuddle on a bed, looking peaceful. The text "AFFEKSJONSVERDI" is prominently displayed. Soft, light colors dominate.

Sentimental Value

A family drama about filmmaking and the arts, directed by a beloved Norwegian filmmaker. Though I don’t see it winning Best Picture, I think Sentimental Value will win Best International Feature Film.

Sinners

A horror film about a Juke Joint opened by twin brothers that has vampires come to its door on the night of its opening. I think the race will come down to Sinners or One Battle After Another, I don’t see any of the other eight nominated films winning best picture. This film was hugely popular among general audiences and well received by critics, breaking the record for Oscar Nominations and it has an incredibly good shot of winning the most awards of the night. I would not be surprised at all if it were to win Best Picture and joined the rare horror movies to win Best Picture The Exorcist and The Silence of the Lambs.

Train Dreams

A western about a 1910’s laborer struggling to keep up with the changing of the modern days in the Pacific Northwest. Though Train Dreams has been quite successful on Netflix and won an Independent Spirit Award, it does not have great a great chance to win Best Picture.

Final Thoughts

As we wrap up, I would like to say that these are not my personal opinions on each of these films, rather my predictions and explanations for how I think the awards will go. Below I have two Oscar ballots that I have filled out, the first is my best guesses as to how the awards will go and the second is how I would vote if I received a ballot.

I feel it is important to state that I have not watched every film nominated here. Most of the information here is gathered between the other award shows of the season and the online discussion of these films. This is not fact; this is a semi-educated guess by a guy who simply loves movies!

2026 Oscars Ballot with categories and nominees listed in black text on white background. Header reads "Letterboxd" and "Kyle's Personal Predictions." To hear all of Kyle's Oscar Picks, see the accessible PDF below.

While I love awards season and rooting for my favorite films and artists, it is important to remember that the Academy Awards only nominate a couple of films per category and will miss many of the year’s best works. While this is one of the most important award shows, there are many wonderful films that the voting body did not nominate for anything. Academy Awards are a fun celebration and recognition of some of the year’s best and most popular films but are not an end-all-be-all when it comes to the quality of a film, performance, or any other category of nomination!

Reserve your copy of the movies mentioned above today!

Reserve Blue Moon on Blu-ray & DVD

Reserve Bugonia on DVD

Reserve F1 on Blu-ray & DVD

Frankenstein - No release date as of March 2026

Reserve Hamnet on DVD

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You - Blu-ray release in May 2026

Marty Supreme - Blu-ray & DVD release in March 2026

Reserve One Battle After Another on Blu-Ray & DVD

The Secret Agent - No release date as of March 2026

Sentimental Value - Blu-ray & DVD release May 2026

Reserve Sinners on Blu-ray & DVD

Reserve Song Sung Blue on Blu-ray & DVD

Train Dreams - Released but not in our system

Reserve Weapons on Blu-ray & DVD

Smiling Kyle in an orange shirt with a name tag stands in front of bookshelves in a library. Books visible, mood is welcoming. — Kyle, Business Manager

A lifelong resident of Clinton and library business manager, Kyle Taylor is passionate about reading and films. For more of Kyle's recommendations, listen to the podcast, Five Favs: Kyle's Favorite Underrated Films, or explore the library blogs Predicting the Winners: Kyle's 2025 Oscar Picks and Staff Blog: Most Anticipated Movies and Books for the First Half of 2025. Even better, visit in person and have Kyle select a few movies for you on the spot!

Until Next Time Library Friends!

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